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Apple’s Vision Pro Niche Market Status Expected Until Lower-Priced Model in 2027, Estimates Suggest

We have numbers now on the Vision Pro rather than speculation.

According to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, up to 30% of Apple Vision Pro headset returns are due to users struggling to set it up. While only 1% of owners returned their headsets, the lack of intuitive operation for Apple’s spatial computing headset seems to be a challenge. The Vision Pro’s eye-tracking technology and less-obvious features may be confusing users, leading to dissatisfaction with the $3,500 device. While the headset’s demand in the U.S. has slowed, Kuo estimates that U.S. shipments will reach 200,000 to 250,000 units this year.  Apple is expected to remain a niche market until a lower-priced, mass-produced model is released, possibly in 2027.

Apple is reportedly expanding production capacity for the Vision Pro mixed reality headset following a successful US launch. Despite a slowdown in US demand, the company plans to produce more units than originally estimated due to better-than-expected market performance. The headset’s popularity among prosumers and developers has increased production for several suppliers. While a global release is not immediate, Apple may launch in more countries before WWDC this year.

Vision Pro owners are reporting a mysterious crack appearing on the front glass of their headsets. The cause of the cracks is unknown, but they appear in the same area above the nose bridge. Speculation suggests it may be a heating issue during charging or a manufacturing problem. The crack is not obstructing any cameras, but repairing the Vision Pro is expensive. The issue seems limited to Reddit reports, and Apple has not responded to inquiries about the problem.

The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is hiring an ‘Extended Reality Specialist’ to create methods for extending and immersing individuals in their environments. The role will involve showcasing technical expertise, program management skills, and staying up-to-date with AR/VR technologies. The CIA seeks to leverage XR for data visualization, collaboration, and training.

Moonhub, a virtual reality training platform, has raised $1.4 million in funding to expand its immersive learning experiences. The platform recreates real-world scenarios to provide hands-on training in sectors such as facilities management, security, and social care. Moonhub’s courses accelerate training completion, require less time than traditional methods, and enhance learning retention. Global enterprises like Just Eat, BNP Paribas, and Amazon are partnering with Moonhub to enhance workforce training. The funding will be used for product development and market expansion.

And, to give you a sense of the possibilities, according to reporter Mark Gurman, Apple is exploring the idea of AI-powered smart glasses and AirPods with cameras. The smart glasses would serve as a cheaper alternative to AR face computers, while the camera-equipped AirPods would assist users with their routines. Apple is also considering the development of a smart ring. The company has been focusing more on AR glasses, following the success of screen-less smart glasses by Meta.

Why do we care?

This is both a small market and one growing faster than initially thought. Apple should easily hit its goal of half a million units, and again, remember, that’s a nearly $2B marketplace.  

The government’s investment in XR technologies validates their potential beyond entertainment, highlighting opportunities for businesses to explore XR applications in training, simulation, and data analysis. This trend may open new markets for XR solutions providers, particularly in sectors with complex data environments or training needs. Companies like Moonhub will be part of that ecosystem.

I’ve pitched the idea of cameras on AirPods myself on this show.   Rumor to be sure, but one more data point indicates something in the XR space.