According to new research from International Data Corporation, global personal computer and tablet sales are projected to face significant challenges in 2025. Sales volume is expected to reach two hundred seventy-three million units, which is only a three point seven percent increase from the previous year. The traditional PC market is anticipated to grow by less than one percent annually until 2029, partly due to stabilization following the migration to Windows eleven. Meanwhile, tablet shipments are predicted to decline by zero point eight percent to one hundred forty-three point three million units in 2025. A major factor affecting these sales is the potential introduction of United States tariffs on Chinese goods, which could rise to twenty percent. This situation is leading to price increases and weakened consumer demand. However, commercial PC sales are expected to see a two percent growth in 2024, driven by large contracts and modest migration to Windows eleven.
So good timing to look at HP and Dell.
HP reported a revenue increase of two point four percent, totaling thirteen point five billion dollars for the quarter ending January thirtieth, twenty twenty-five. The company achieved an operating profit of nine hundred eighty-four million dollars, marking its third consecutive quarter of revenue growth. HP’s Personal Systems division, which handles PC sales, saw revenues rise five percent year-over-year to nine point two billion dollars, with commercial sales contributing nearly half of total revenue. In contrast, consumer PC sales experienced a decline of seven percent in revenue and eleven percent in unit sales.
Dell Technologies reported a net income of one point five billion dollars on revenues of twenty-three point nine billion dollars for the quarter ending January thirty-first, twenty twenty-five. This marks a year-over-year increase of twenty-seven percent in net income and seven percent in revenue. For the fiscal year twenty twenty-five, Dell’s total revenue reached ninety-five point six billion dollars, with a net income of four point six billion dollars, up thirty-six percent compared to the previous year. The company’s Infrastructure Solutions Group saw significant growth, with revenues up twenty-two percent, driven by demand in artificial intelligence and traditional server markets. Meanwhile, Dell’s Client Solutions Group, which includes its personal computer sales, generated eleven point nine billion dollars in revenue for the quarter, with commercial PC sales rising five percent year-over-year. Dell’s vice chairman and COO Jeff Clarke expressed optimism about the company’s prospects in the AI sector, noting a backlog of approximately nine billion dollars in AI server orders.
Why do we care?
The days of relying on PC sales for growth are fading, and those PCs may get much more expensive. For HP: PC revenue grew 5% in commercial but consumer sales dropped (-7% revenue, -11% units), reinforcing that consumer demand remains weak.
For Dell: Strong commercial PC growth (+5%) but biggest gains are in AI-driven infrastructure (+22%). Dell’s $9B backlog in AI server orders suggests enterprises prioritize AI infrastructure investments over end-user devices.
To consider – Desktop as a service as an alternative to expensive PC refreshes, particularly in an upgrade year with Microsoft pushing Windows 11.
