I’m back from some time off, and the best place to start is to see what conditions are like on the ground, right?
The Institute for Supply Management services index fell to 51.4 in March, indicating a drop in expansion and a lower worry about supply chain issues. However, new data from ADP showed that private employers added 184,000 jobs in March, surpassing analysts’ expectations. Pay gains remained steady for those in their jobs but surged for job-changers, raising concerns about inflation.
According to CompTIA’s analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, tech hiring exceeded expectations in March, with technology companies adding 6,000 workers and technology occupations throughout the economy increasing by 203,000. The unemployment rate for tech occupations dropped to 3%, and there were 191,000 new job postings for tech positions, the highest volume since August 2023.
CompTIA also released their State of the Tech Workforce 2024, forecasting a 3% growth in the tech workforce and adding 300,000 new positions this year. The report suggests that U.S. technology employment is expected to see a brighter outlook this year, with 20 states and 14 metropolitan areas exceeding the average growth rate. Long-term projections show that tech occupation employment is expected to expand at about twice the overall employment rate in the U.S. economy.
Axios notes Unemployment rates have risen in some populous states in the US, indicating pockets of weakness in the labor market. The job market now appears more uneven, with certain regions missing out on the job opportunities available in other states. California and Nevada have experienced significant increases in unemployment rates, while swing states like Arizona and Wisconsin have also seen upward movements. Despite this, many states with rising jobless rates still have historically low unemployment. The labor market in California has been affected by weakness in the tech sector, resulting in layoffs.
According to Gallup’s annual survey, Americans are less stressed about the economy and inflation than last year, but more worried about illegal immigration. Immigration is now the top unprompted issue of concern, with Republicans showing the highest level of worry at 73%.
Consultancy KPMG’s monthly Supply Chain Stability Index, made with the Association for Supply Chain Management — shows a decline in the initial months of 2024 to the lowest point since February 2021. A lower measurement means less stress in the supply chain.
According to the quarterly company earnings call analysis by IoT Analytics, the key themes discussed by CEOs in Q1 2024 were AI, sustainability, and elections. AI discussions focused on individual technologies like GPUs and LLMs, while sustainability saw a resurgence with keywords related to energy efficiency and renewable energy. The mention of recession declined, but inflation saw an increase. The decline in mentions of ChatGPT and war was also observed.
The Russell 2000, a proxy for small businesses, has been down in the past two weeks and slightly down for the year. The S&P 600, which looks at the smallest companies, was steady in the past two weeks and is slightly down on the year.
We note the dip in supply chain worries as I recently reported how SMBs are as concerned about supply chain issues as cybersecurity ones. That concern may fade over the course of the year, and likely will be replaced with political concerns in the US in the second half of the year.
If the insight to note is the trend line, then take note that AI broadly is rising, ChatGPT specifically dipping as a focal point, inflation concern trends down yet is not gone.