I rather like starting weeks with a big-picture review. While there is a minor rise in optimism among small businesses, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remains below the 49-year average for the 19th consecutive month, increasing by 0.9 points to 91.9. Hiring is a prominent issue, with 42% of owners reporting job openings that were hard to fill and 92% of those hiring or attempting to hire finding few or no qualified applicants. Despite investments in growth and infrastructure, nominal sales reported by a net negative 13% of all owners indicate underlying challenges in revenue generation.
A recent C-suite poll by PwC suggests that organizations are feeling more confident about the economy as they prioritize technology investment, including generative AI. Only 17% of the business leaders the consultancy polled “strongly agree” that there will be a recession in the next six months. That compares with 35% of respondents expecting a recession in PwC’s October 2022 Pulse Survey.
A new Fed survey shows that Americans are less confident in the labor market, with fewer people seeking new jobs and less inclination to job-hop. The likelihood of respondents switching to a new employer is dropping. Still, wage demands are rising, with the average expected annual salary of job offers in the next four months jumping to $67,416 from $60,310 in July 2022.
LinkedIn reports that job adverts in the UK that don’t list a degree requirement have increased by 90%, and globally, recruiters are increasingly searching for candidates based on skills rather than degrees. Major companies such as IBM, Google, and Tesla are among those hiring more based on skills over qualifications, and 75% of recruiting professionals anticipate skills-first hiring will become a priority for their company over the next 18 months.
By the end of 2023, 39% of global knowledge workers will work hybrid, up from 37% in 2022, according to research firm Gartner. The hybrid work trend will be more pronounced in the US, with 51% of knowledge workers projected to work hybrid and 20% to work fully remote in 2023.
Why do we care?
Surveys of sentiment are lagging indicators. We’re watching the trend, which is up in SMB and broad opinion, rather than dwelling on the specific numbers. That’s not aligned with labor’s perception. I’m focused on the disconnect as the real insight. Perception is messy, and that’s problematic. Employment reality looks messy, too – with more creativity in looking for workers and more diverse working situations.
Now, why care? You don’t have to solve the problem for everyone, just for your organization and your customers. And don’t expect it to be solved in the same way.