I also spotted two stories about the labor market.
First is a post from White House economists presenting evidence that labor supply has returned to its pre-pandemic trend. The share of prime-age workers — those between 25 and 54 — who are part of the workforce is now a tick higher than before the pandemic: 83.1%, compared with 83.0% in February 2020. The overall participation rate is down (62.6% from 63.3% in February 2020), but that is due to the Baby Boom generation retiring. It’s on track with what the Congressional Budget Office forecasters anticipated before the pandemic.
So the core reason for the delay – it just took time for workers to match up to jobs and return to the workforce.
And the National Security Agency is reporting a boost in its recruitment efforts following waves of layoffs at tech giants like Google and Microsoft, per a statement last week. What I would say is we got some people with an experience level we didn’t often see,” according to Rob Joyce, the NSA Director of Cybersecurity. “We’re seeing mid-career people looking to come to, one, the stability, but, two, also the opportunity to come into the intel community.”
The story about lost labor is now disproven by data. Additionally, we should continue to expect stories like the NSA’s. Big tech headlines are sexy – and the real story will be the migration of these workers into other industries. Ignore that noise, and understand that there is both talent available.. and not enough talent at the same time.