I want to start the week off with good news.
The March jobs data was released on Friday, and it’s … good! Quoting Axios:
Employers are adding jobs at a healthy but more moderate pace. New workers are reentering the labor force in strong numbers, helping meet the demand for staff. As a result, wage gains are normalizing in a way that’s consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target.
If sustained, this “not-too-hot, not-too-cold” labor market could lead to an economy that resembles more the environment of 2019 (healthy job market with steady job growth and low inflation) than the strange hothouse of 2021 and 2022.
Payrolls rose by 236,000 last month, more than needed to keep up with labor force growth but well below the breakneck pace of hiring.
And this:
But for yet another month, workers came off the sidelines. Last month, the labor force grew by 480,000 workers — that is, about half a million more Americans either got a job or were looking for one. That’s on top of the roughly 419,000 who did so in February.
Nearly 81% of Americans in their prime working years are employed, the highest number since May 2001, according to the latest jobs report on Friday,
Saying people don’t want to work these days… is simply untrue. The data doesn’t bear it out. If you’re having trouble hiring, complaining about people not wanting to work now is lazy and wrong. You’ll need another solution.
There’s a lot here. As I think about my 2023 predictions, I was predicting a bumpy ride. Maybe I was right… for the wrong reasons. It turns out it may be bumpy because it’s a bit more uneven than we might like, with a heavy layer of noise on top of it. Looking like 2019 sounds pretty good to me. Choosing to be optimistic also becomes part of the self-fulfilling prophecy. Optimism doesn’t mean you don’t plan; it drives attitude.