I want to pull from an Axios story. Quote:
Right now, the two surveys are sending distinct signals about the trend in employment.
It could be a sign that beneath the surface of a job market that appears exceptionally strong, things might be getting bumpier.
The monthly jobs numbers are based on a survey of about 131,000 employers — asking how many people are on their payrolls, how much they were paid, and so forth. The unemployment rate and related data are calculated based on a survey of about 60,000 households, asking ordinary Americans whether they are working, or looking for work.
Both sets of numbers bounce around from month to month, but over time you would expect to see the same trends from both. If employers say they are hiring a lot more, you also expect more people to report that they are employed.
That isn’t what has happened since March. Employers report having added 2.7 million jobs in that span, but only 12,000 more people in the household survey report being employed.
Indeed, that category fell each of the last two months, and four of the last eight.
The article continues by highlighting how respondents are counted in the two surveys. In the household survey, it’s per person, but in the establishment one, it’s more by job – although workers off the books, like self-employed or on leave, don’t show up there at all.
The gap is what’s discussed and how it could be a warning sign. The analysis highlights how it could signify recession, so we can add that to the pile of warnings we’ve discussed.
The reason to care is more about the subtlety of the divergence – there’s uncertainty among marginalized workers, those dealing with child care, and the self-employed. I’m focusing on asking more about what is happening outside the scope of “work” and more in the area of “life” to understand these trends, and it’s a valuable direction for employers too.