According to findings released Thursday, nearly nine in 10 companies surveyed for the forthcoming Spiceworks Ziff Davis “2023: State of IT” report are planning for a recession in the next year.
Of course… Unemployment among tech professions fell to 1.7% in July, according to a CompTIA review of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The number fell one-tenth of a percentage point month-over-month and is close to the all-time low rate of 1.3%, recorded in May 2019.
Amid job gains in the economy overall, which more than doubled expectations, tech occupations expanded in July, with employers across industries adding an estimated 239,000 positions. The previous month saw the economy shed 17,300 tech positions as hiring cooled.
This point for unemployment is the lowest mark since the turn of the century.
According to data from the Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker, wages grew 12% for the youngest workers in June, more than twice the rate for those between 24 and 54. Younger Americans are outperforming the old even in absolute dollar terms. A 3.7% raise on the over-55 median weekly wage of $1,240 is $46; a 12.5% increase on the under-24 median salary of $707 is $88.
Why do we care?
I’m shifting my own language from recession to unease, simply because I don’t want this to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. My advice of focus on fundamentals is a starting point, and admittedly always good advice.
One of the items to focus on here is the continued tightness of the market and wage pressures – while there is a lot of noise about tech layoffs, it’s confined to big tech and companies that probably grew too fast. Listener, that is likely not you – especially if you’re in services.
Combining this with last week’s insights from CompTIA ChannelCon – you may need to be a lot more flexible on hiring as you look to entry level positions, both paying more than you would want and hiring and training rather than expecting a perfect match.